U.S. Sports Betting: April 2024

As of Apr. 5, we forecast the U.S. sports-betting market to be worth $22.3bn to $24.7bn in total annual gross revenue by 2027, depending on whether legislative trends align with our base-case or (more optimistic) bull-case scenarios. We forecast total gross revenue from all U.S. online gambling (online sports betting, plus iGaming in certain states) to reach $30.7bn to $35.7bn by 2027.

In this blog, we throw the spotlight onto college sports prop bets, and break down one of the most closely watched jurisdictions in this space, as highlighted in the April edition of our U.S. Sports Betting Outlook report.

Status

State regulators are paying renewed attention to whether to permit proposition bets on the performances of individual collegiate athletes after the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) launched a high-profile national campaign to prohibit the bet types. The NCAA has argued that player props lead to increased harassment of players related to gambling, as well as posing sport integrity issues. Operators have claimed that banning the bet types will simply drive players to unregulated sportsbooks where they can make those wagers and hurt the transition to the regulated market.

Outlook

Several state regulators have taken action to prohibit the bet types in recent months, including Ohio, Maryland and Louisiana, while a host of other states already prohibit the bet types either through specific language in state law or through regulatory action. Many states have provisions in state law that permit sport governing bodies to petition the regulator to remove certain bet types from available wagers for good cause, and multiple states have said they will review the bet types in the wake of the increased push from the NCAA. In explaining the decision to prohibit the wagers, the Ohio Casino Control Commission said that the player-specific proposition bets accounted for less than 1.4 percent of the state’s sports wagering revenue, as well as the number of wagers in 2023.

What We’re Watching Out For

Is the NCAA’s push merely the first shoe to drop in terms of rolling back available bet types in U.S. sports? Prohibiting prop bets on collegiate athletes will hardly force operators to close up shop, but operators are undoubtedly wary that restricting individual props could be an invitation to further prohibitions on collegiate sports wagering that could be more material to an operator’s business. The prohibitions could also trickle into the professional ranks, for instance, where the National Basketball Association is currently investigating Toronto Raptors player Jontay Porter for suspicious trends regarding prop bets on his performance. After an increased number of potential sport integrity issues have popped up in both the collegiate and professional ranks in recent months, more notice could be paid and more legislators and regulators could be empowered to clamp down on potentially problematic bet types.

States With Limits On Collegiate Wagering

Collegiate Bet Type Limitations

Proposition Bets: At least ten states have active prohibitions on permitting proposition bets on the individual performance of collegiate athletes, while others like New York and Pennsylvania don’t have a specific codified prohibition, but may not approve the bet types as part of their permitted catalog.

In-State Bans: Various jurisdictions prohibit bets on in-state colleges or universities, or on events that are taking place in the state. In some cases, exceptions are made for high profile events, such as NCAA basketball tournaments, or other national events where in-state colleges are playing.

The Illinois Model: Illinois has the most intricate set of rules governing college sports betting, including requiring any bets on Illinois collegiate teams to be placed in-person rather than online. The state also limits wagering types to those determined solely by the final score and prohibits live wagering on collegiate events.

Oregon Off-Limits: Oregon is the only state where all forms of wagering on college sports remain prohibited as a matter of state policy. The OR Lottery has advocated for lawmakers to expressly allow for college sports wagering, but to no avail so far.

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Want to keep reading?

This blog is just a small glimpse of what’s inside our April 2024 Sports Betting Outlook, a monthly report which maps out how the U.S. sports betting landscape is being redrawn after the May 2018 Supreme Court ruling allowing all states to regulate wagering. It allows Vixio customers to compare state laws and key pending bills, identify policy trends and accurately forecast the size and scope of the market both in terms of anticipated legislative developments and projected revenues by participating states.

Get in touch or book a demo with a member of the Vixio team, who can show you how your organisation can use the Vixio GamblingCompliance platform to stay abreast of the U.S. Sports Betting’s regulatory landscape.

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