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Although this reality was under construction in 2024, this new year will see suppliers adapting to the reality of direct compliance obligations in a way that is likely to reframe relationships with their clients.
The primary compliance risk to suppliers will be whether any regulators take a dim view of their dealings with less reputable operators.
In Romania, suppliers are required to disclose contracts with any operators not licensed in Romania, as perhaps the most extreme example of a growing trend of radical disclosure.
Operators, too, are putting the squeeze on their supplier partners. Even in markets where suppliers are not set to be directly licensed, the general trend towards propriety among larger operators is leading to downward pressure for the suppliers they buy from to behave with the same propriety.
New markets are not dead yet
Despite the sharpening worlds of mature market compliance, 2025 is not without its new market opportunities in Europe.
This year will see Finland finalise the shape of its licensed market, with the final touches to be put on legislation that was published in a mostly final form in late 2024.
Licence applications are expected to open at the start of 2026, but the Finnish government has already demonstrated an appetite to accelerate its timelines if progress allows.
This year will see operators sizing up the market opportunity and preparing solutions to Finland’s specific compliance challenges.
Trade groups in Finland are likely to spend their time lobbying the National Police Board on the particulars of regulation, but perhaps most critically, attempting to organise some sort of coordinated response to the risk of over-advertising.
Sweden and the Netherlands provide very clear examples of the political blowback that will inevitably follow the sudden surge in TV advertising, particularly around sports.
The general public in Finland is largely accustomed to gambling advertising from only state-owned Veikkaus and the shift in advertising spend as the new entrants fight tooth and nail for market share risks widespread public discontent.
Trade bodies in the Netherlands attempted to arrange a pre-market advertising code to stave off an advertising overload but failed due to the refusal of different industry bodies to see eye to eye and the overwhelming commercial impetus to compete on advertising.
With only one operator in the market, in the form of Veikkaus, operators entering Finland have a higher chance of reaching an accord, but trade group bosses admit the chances are slim of seeing off a familiar pattern of an ad blitz, followed by political retribution.
There remains a real prospect of online casinos being un-banned in France.
Although the collapse of the French government in December 2024 stalled a consultation opened in response to a failed budget amendment, there is no sense that the incoming administration would be hostile to considering change.
A lot will hinge on the position taken by France’s cadre of small land-based casinos. They are deeply entwined with local governments looking to protect income and employment.
Whether they seek to defeat the project as a whole or just to ensure that the terms of licensing are favourable to the sector will have a major impact on how rapidly momentum builds for reform.
There is no reason to believe that FDJ will not be a force in pushing for reform as it seeks to deploy the Kindred resources it has spent billions buying in its native country.
The risk to the rest of the industry is that the state-backed giant looks to carve out the market for itself, without allowing access to the rest of the industry.
French regulator ANJ has been predictably cautious in commenting on the prospect of legalising online casinos, but seems to be quietly in favour of the idea, on the grounds that France supports a large online casino black market.
Ireland will also draw focus as 2025 develops. After more than a decade of trying, the successful attempt to replace the country’s ancient gambling legislation is less of a new market opportunity than it is a re-regulation.
Ireland is set to become a more modern market, akin to its Western European neighbours, along with its own variations on familiar compliance restrictions.
An advertising watershed, a ban on personalised acquisition bonuses and a €10 casino bet limit are among the particulars operators will need to adapt to.
But first, they will need to be licensed, with the incoming Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland (GRAI) still yet to be fully established and with plenty of secondary regulations to be written before the licensing windows open.
Gambling companies in search of new market opportunities outside Finland and potentially France will have to look further afield.
Eastern Europe and Central Asia offer several markets in the midst of regulatory reform that could see considerable operator interest in 2025. In particular, Albania, Serbia, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are either unbanning segments or updating their regulations for the modern world.
